Seattle Real Estate News

Last Tuesday the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 cities came in UP a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for October. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase for the index. Year-over-year, prices are still down 7.3%, but that’s a less steep rate of decline than we’ve been seeing.

It looks like home prices could be stabilizing, though well below their peaks in most markets. This price decline, plus the dramatic drop in mortgage rates, have made homes more affordable than they’ve been in a long time. A writer for the Wall Street Journal compared home price index values, mortgage rates and average weekly earnings going back to 1987. The finding? On average, housing is as affordable now as it was in the mid-1990′s, when homes were a real steal. Of course, this conclusion is based on average prices, so affordability may be greater or less in individual markets.

Christmas Eve, the Treasury lifted the limit on the money it can put into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to keep their net worth positive over the next three years. Some economists point out that Fannie and Freddie could now replace the Fed as a big buyer of mortgage-backed securities to help keep mortgage rates down after March 31. That would be great, but nothing is certain. Smart buyers are taking advantage of TODAY’S low mortgage rates AND the expanded tax credit that requires a signed contract by April 30 and a closing by June 30!

Review of Last Week

SLIDING INTO 2010… The stock market was up for three out of the four days of trading last week, but New Year’s Eve saw a 120-point drop in the Dow, which left it and the other major indexes sliding down ever so slightly for the week. But for the year, the indexes were decidedly up, coming off the bottom stock prices hit last March. And there were other positive economic indicators to lift our spirits going into 2010.

Tuesday, Consumer Confidence for December came in at 52.9, continuing its upward move from the prior month’s 50.6 reading. This Conference Board survey showed consumers more optimistic, based on their expectations the economy will keep improving over the next six months. Wednesday, the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for November registered 60.0, way better than expected, reflecting continued growth in manufacturing in another key region of the country.

All this encouraging news was followed Thursday with Initial Unemployment Claims coming in at 432,000, well below consensus estimates and the lowest number we’ve seen in a year and a half! Continuing Claims also keep shrinking, now drifting into 4 million territory. Employment has always been closely tied to the health of the housing market, so positive moves like these should be noted by all interested parties.

For the week, the Dow was down just 0.9%, to 10428.05; the S&P 500 was down 1.0%, to 1115.10; while the Nasdaq was down 0.7%, to 2269.15.

The bond market, which closed early on Thursday, experienced a volatile week. When all was said and done, the FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch ended the week up just 3 basis points, closing at $99.84. Mortgage rates still remain at historically low levels.

This Week’s Forecast

WAITING ON THE JOBS NUMBERS… The end of this week delivers the all-important Employment Report for December. A key element will of course be the Unemployment Rate. We might see a tick up from last month’s drop to 10%. While we await this news, the main focus for folks like us will be Pending Home Sales on Tuesday. ISM indexes will take the measure of Manufacturing on Monday and Service businesses come Wednesday.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 4 – January 8
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Jan 4 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Dec 54.0 53.6 HIGH
Jan 5 10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov –3.0% 3.7% Moderate
Jan 6 10:00 ISM Services Dec 50.5 48.7 Moderate
Jan 6 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/31 NA –1.54M Moderate
Jan 7 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 01/02 445K 432K Moderate
Jan 7 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 12/26 5.040K 4.981M Moderate
Jan 7 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/31 NA –1.54M Moderate
Jan 8 08:30 Average Workweek Dec 33.2 33.2 HIGH
Jan 8 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
Jan 8 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 0 –11K HIGH
Jan 8 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 10.1% 10.0% HIGH

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Some economists are beginning to feel the Fed will start hiking rates this Spring. But the vast majority of observers — 83% — still feel the Fed will hold to its commitment to keep rates low for an extended period. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 27 0%–0.25%
Mar 16 0%–0.25%
Apr 28 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 27 1%
Mar 16 7%
Apr 28 17%

Top 7 Reasons to Buy Your First Home Today

1. Free Money. The $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers is valid before December 1, 2009. This is a special tax credit from the government that you don’t have to pay back, as long as you stay in the home for at least 36 months.

2. Affordability. Based on recent property declines and current interest rates, home affordability has not been higher since it was first tracked over 40 years ago. Your grandparents couldn’t have received a better interest rate than you can today.

3. Tax Breaks. The IRS allows you to deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage, your property taxes and, in many cases for those who qualify, some of the costs to buy your home and mortgage insurance. Owning a home is a great way to lower your tax bill.

4. Build Wealth. Unlike paying rent, with each mortgage payment you make, you build equity and you decrease your income tax liability. Owning a home is still the best long-term investment.

5. Appreciation. As home prices have fallen precipitously in today’s tough economy, the basis for realizing appreciation in future years is very strong. Historically, even with other periods of declining value, home prices have exceeded consumer inflation. From 1972 through 2005, home prices increased on average 6.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

6. Stability. Knowing you can establish roots and raise a family in one location, free of the desires or needs of your landlord to sell the property you are living in. This is something no other investment provides. You can’t live in a stock, and you can’t raise your kids in a bond.

7. Independence. Enjoy the freedom to do what you want to your home. After all, it’s yours to do what you wish. And, with any improvements you make, you have the ability to benefit from your investment. Try that with an apartment!
Mortgage Interest Rates for Fixed Rate Mortgages*

On November 6, 2009, President Obama signed a bill to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers (FTHBs) through June 30, 2010. The bill also opens up opportunities for others who are not buying a home for the first time.

To learn what the new tax credit means to you and your clients, take a look at the overview below.

Tax Credit for Homebuyers

First-Time Homebuyers (FTHBs): First-time homebuyers (that is, people who have not owned a home within the last three years) may be eligible for the tax credit. The credit for FTHBs is 10% of the purchase price of the home, with a maximum available credit of $8,000.

Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount.

Current Owners: The tax credit program now gives those who already own a residence some additional reasons to move to a new home. This incentive comes in the form of a tax credit of up to $6,500 for qualified purchasers who have owned and occupied a primary residence for a period of five consecutive years during the last eight years.

Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount.

What are the New Deadlines?

In order to qualify for the credit, all contracts need to be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 and close no later than June 30, 2010.

Tax Credit Versus Tax Deduction

It’s important to remember that the tax credit is just that… a tax credit. The benefit of a tax credit is that it’s a dollar-for-dollar tax reduction, rather than a reduction in a tax liability that would only save you $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done. So, if a first-time homebuyer were to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for a tax credit of $8,000, she would owe nothing.
Better still, the tax credit is refundable, which means the homebuyer can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little income tax liability. For example, if a first-time homebuyer is eligible for a tax credit of $8,000 but is liable for $4,000 in income tax, she can still receive a check for the remaining $4,000!

Higher Income Caps

The amount of income someone can earn and qualify for the full amount of the credit has been increased.

Single tax filers who earn up to $125,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, single filers who earn $145,000 and above are ineligible

Joint filers who earn up to  $225,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, joint filers who earn $245,000 and above are ineligible.

Maximum Purchase Price

Qualifying buyers may purchase a property with a maximum sale price of $800,000.